Posts Tagged loans
700 Billion Bailout Package
Posted by Top Home Loans in Mortgage News on October 5, 2008

Last week was a huge week in the future of the world economy. The United States is going through one of the biggest credit crunches the world has ever known. This is not just defaulting firms in North America; however, it is defaulting firms across the globe.
The only cure, according to Paulson and Bernake, is to shore up the financials with 800 billion in new funds. The implications of 800 billion on the economy will be far greater than the news media outlets would lead you to believe.
The scariest thing is that the bill was voted in under martial law, meaning that the representatives that voted on the bill did not read the bill before voting on it. The updated bill had almost 500 pages to it, and may include certain legal jurisdictions to change the financial landscape as we know it forever.
The Future of the Economy
What exactly happens as a result of the government bailout is purely speculation at the moment. We are standing on the brink of the future of the economy. Will the banks begin to lend again, or will the banks hang on to whatever money they get as they fear making loans in the future. This will create one of two possible scenarios.
The federal reserve gives massive funding to the Federal Government. The government uses these funds to buy up Trillions of subprime loans at a discount; however, the government will not have a say on what they are buying, instead the purchasing of subprime debt will be directing by the federal reserve. The goal is for the government to hold onto the bad debt until it has matured enough to be resold for fiscal gain; however, there are a lot of flaws with this plan. To begin, the debt is illiquid meaning that if the banks valued it as assets, then they would not be in this position in the first place. They would be able to buy and sell these assets between eachother if needed to turn a profit, yet no investors will buy these, even if they are able to buy and hold like the government suggests.
This forshadows that the subprime problem is not going to go away in a year or in a few years even, but it might be several years until there is a conclusion to this great crisis.
To Lend or Not To Lend
With the huge selloff of many financial institutions, it is more profitable for financial institutions not to lend money. This is because if they hold the assets they can get a better return by making more guaranteed investments, then betting on the failing real estate business. They will not be able to invest in businesses and mortgages because of fear of bankruptcy if they make the wrong decisions. Mortgage insurers will not insure mortgages as easily as in the past of fear of bankruptcy as well. The diminishing amount of funds being lent will inevitably decrease the money supply in the United States; although, there was a very large influx of funds by the bill passing. This will potentially cause deflation in the monetary system.
The cost of goods will decrease heavily causing the housing market to fall even harder than previously and this will cause even more bad loans since the financial institutions will call more and more loans upon renewal, and recovery will only occur if the government is able to guarantee the lenders stability with there investments.
Inflation Strikes Back
Let’s say financial institutions regain there confidence and begin lending again. What will be the implications of that? Well, this is the ultimate goal of the bailout pakage. If the banks begin lending again, then the goal is to push house prices back up to the level where the house prices are proportional to the loans and the subprime loans go back to being profitable.
However, this will cause the return of large inflation because the dollar has been devalued due to the huge injection of funds and the marginal banking system. There is even rumours that the margin requirement of the banking system may have been removed with the passing of this new bill.
The cost of goods will soar with the rise of inflation. This will, also, cause the key lending rate to go up, and this will cause the slowing of the economy which in turn will increase interest rates. With interest rates rising, so will mortgage rates. With higher mortgage rates, the economy and the housing market will drop as well, and this will cause a longer subprime crisis as well as more subprime loans.
Future of the Market
This is only a few of the highly possible scenarios that might come out of the subprime crisis; however, the lasting effect and the exact problems that come out of this are yet to be determined; however, when we had any other bubble, whether it be tech, commodities, or anything else, we did not bailout these firms; instead, we allowed the values to return to appropriate levels without a bailout. Why did we do it this time?